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Serbia Moves Back To Center Stage
After years as a sidelined figure on the European political stage, Serbia is now attracting growing attention from both West and East.
While continuing to line up its bid for European Union membership, Serbia is also the focus of Russia's renewed interest in the Balkans. In October, Belgrade signed deals with Moscow that include support for a controversial oil pipeline, a generous loan deal and the establishment of a Russian base in Serbia that has the potential for military use. Some even see Serbia's deepening ties with Russia as inimical to its pro-Western stance. But for the time being, Serbia's canny government is strengthening its own position through what amounts to a balancing act.
The re-election of Serbian President Boris Tadic in February 2008, and the parliamentary victory of the coalition led by his Democratic Party (DS) in May of the same year, were seen as clear signs of Serbian enthusiasm for entering the European mainstream -- after years of being either on the periphery or entirely excluded as a result of its role in the bloody wars following Yugoslavia's collapse.
(…)Tadic and his energetic foreign minister, Vuk Jeremic, have repeatedly proclaimed their commitment to the EU, and in recent months have stated that Serbia will submit its application for accession by the end of the year. In concrete terms, the administration has pursued a broadly reformist economic course, while also sending the right signals to Brussels on the issue of war crimes. (…)
(…) [There is also] very encouraging noises towards Belgrade, with Germany and Italy throwing their weight behind Serbian membership in recent months. Even the Netherlands, which has its own complicated issues due to the Srebrenica massacre, has softened its opposition.
At the same time, with American interest in the Balkans seemingly waning under the Obama administration, Russia has been quietly reasserting its influence in the region. Serbia -- with its historic, cultural and religious ties to Russia, and its location in the heart of the Balkans -- has been a central focus, causing some disquiet in the West.
In October, Russian President Dimitry Medvedev made a groundbreaking visit to Belgrade, signing a number of agreements between the two countries.
The most publicized was a $1 billion loan to cover Serbia's yawning budget deficit for 2009 and provide liquidity for its recession-hit economy. Responding to worries that this could increase Moscow's economic leverage in the country, Serbian Finance Minister Mladan Dinkic pointedly remarked that the EU had only been willing to extend €100 million, half of which would not be delivered until next year. (…)
Meanwhile, Russia and Serbia agreed to quadruple the capacity of the Serbian section of the South Stream gas pipeline proposed by Russian state energy monopoly Gazprom. (…) Gazprom has acquired a 51 percent stake in Serbian energy firm NIS, giving it a monopoly on petroleum and natural gas sales in the country until 2011.
Less publicized, but no less significant, was the deal signed with Russian Emergency Situations Minister Sergei Shoigu to establish a "humanitarian emergency center" in Nis. The involvement of Shoihu's ministry, known as EMERCOM, is intriguing, because it commands a substantial paramilitary force and is active in combating militants in the Caucasus. (…) Some analysts have indicated the potential for the Nis base to become a military operations center for Russia, similar to those that the U.S. has in neighboring countries. (…) [It is just a speculation for now]
Given Moscow's support for Serbia's claim / Kosovo claimed by Serbia /, the base agreement can be seen as a symbolic statement by the Serbian government that it has not given up on the matter.
Developments in November suggest that it is premature to conclude that Serbia is turning away from the EU. Progress on actually delivering the Russian loan has stalled. And Grubacic argues that Serbia's good relations with Brussels and Moscow are not incompatible, an assessment shared by EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn. Leading EU member states such as Germany and Italy also have close ties to Russia.
"Serbia is trying to retain good relations with all parties, and Tadic believes it is possible to become a member of the EU with Russian support," Grubacic said.
(…) Serbia seems to be enjoying the best of both worlds at the moment, with the Russian deals highlighting the country's value to both Moscow and Brussels. Whether that delicate balance can be maintained through a convulsion in EU-Russia relations remains to be seen. (…) And while the idea that Belgrade must choose between Kosovo and EU membership may be simplistic, differences over the issue will not remain in the background forever. (…)
